Daily Homicides in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The mean figure of daily killings each month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government data. But, security analysts have warned that murder numbers could fail to point to enhanced national safety.

Marked Reduction in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of almost 55 murders a day in last November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen during these past months is very notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the lowest amount of homicides were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Fierce cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over 4x greater than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an ostensibly sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between government authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety experts warned that focusing solely on murder statistics to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is notably true in light of the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be positive news if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer valid for gauging the situation of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to accurately recognize and classify bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was similarly an issue because it might hide days when there were notably high levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily average makes surges of violence invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the government can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to official figures. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet despite these actions, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-fueled violence. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and throughout the country to show their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to construct a picture of security. Politically it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst remarked.